Friday, January 30, 2015

NFL picks--Super Bowl 49

Last week (2 weeks ago): 2-0
Season record: 168-82

Well, here we are.  Once again the NFL season has whizzed by like an express train.  And we're left with the two #1 seeds from each conference.  This game is so evenly matched that no one seems to know who to pick, but I'll try, because that's why we're here....

New England vs. Seattle--Last year, the Seahawks shocked the Broncos and the football world by utterly destroying them in the Meadowlands, 43-8.  There is no way this defense, good as it is, will hold Tom Brady's offense to 8 points.  But it could be low scoring, because the Pats' D doesn't suck this season either.  Belichick and Brady always have a good plan and there is no doubt they have the Seahawks figured out, to some degree.  Can they limit Marshawn Lynch to slow Russell Wilson's read-option?  If so they have a great shot, but that's a big if.  Brady will face a lot of pressure, and his receivers may not find separation against the Hawks secondary, but he also has LeGarrette Blount, who has been a mini-Beast Mode during the postseason.  Here is my advice to both teams--make sure your kickers are prepared and ready, because it's likely they may decide the game.  Patriots 23, Seahawks 20

Friday, January 16, 2015

NFL picks--Championship Sunday

Last week: 3-1
Season record: 166-82

So now there are just three games left, but they are literally for all the marbles.  The football Final Four, if you will.  This has been a weird season in many ways, but 3/4 of the teams playing on Sunday were expected to be here.  And 3/4 of them have a good chance of winning it all.  The Colts, who are capable of beating any of these teams, are probably a year or so away.  Of course, nothing would really surprise me or most of you, right?  Here we go....

Green Bay at Seattle--This is a rematch of the Week 1 Thursday nighter that Seattle won to set the tone for the season.  My people here in Wisconsin remember that game all too well and are not so confident for the rematch....at least the people I know.  Aaron Rodgers is hobbling, so the Seahawks and their swarming, speedy defense are going to try to rattle #12.  But Rodgers has a quick release, a strong arm and a good running game.  The Hawks are the Hawks--and they are peaking at the right time.  Seahawks 27, Packers 24

Indianapolis at New England--You gotta believe Bill and Tom were pleased that Peyton Manning will be on his couch this Sunday.  So while the Broncos would have been a tough out, a new era of the Colts/Pats rivalry has officially begun.  But for now at least, Andrew Luck is the student and Brady the teacher.  And the teacher and his Gronk will put on a clinic.  Patriots 37, Colts 31

Friday, January 9, 2015

NFL picks--Divisional round

Last week: 2-2
Season record: 163-81

This is the best NFL weekend of the year.  Sure, there are only four games, but you're left with the 8 best teams fighting to get to the championship games.  Okay, maybe the Eagles and Chargers and Chiefs would have something to say about the 8 best teams, but at least the Panthers are playing like a playoff caliber team now.  It's really the best weekend because it's all elimination at this point and there are two games Saturday and two on Sunday.  So let's have at it....

Baltimore at New England--Oh, those pesky Ravens.  You gotta believe Bill Belichick and Tom Brady want nothing to do with having to beat them, because they are playing well and Joe Flacco tends to step up in big games.  And Terrell Suggs and that defense are getting back to terrorizing form.  My heart is saying New England but my head keeps telling me otherwise.  The other thing is the Pats have had two weeks to prep.  Not two full weeks of Ravens prep but two weeks.  So my pick is New England but the opposite would not surprise me.  Patriots 31, Ravens 27

Carolina at Seattle--Is there anyone outside of Charlotte that thinks this won't be a home blowout?  Maybe no one inside of Charlotte either.  The Seahawks have given up an average of 6.5 points per game for the last six games.  That's an amazing statistic, and frankly I think the only chance Carolina has of scoring points will be on defense or off of turnovers.  Seahawks 20, Panthers 3

Dallas at Green Bay--It's been frigid here in Wisconsin, so it could be Ice Bowl 2.  Regardless, there are interesting story lines here.  Will the refs be super careful to not try to favor Dallas?  Will Aaron Rodgers' calf limit his ability to scramble?  Will the Packers be able to stop DeMarco Murray and Tony Romo, the latter of which has decided to stop throwing interceptions this year?  Will Dallas be able to stop that high octane offense?  This is another game where I think one team will win but I wouldn't be surprised either way.  Packers 34, Cowboys 31

Indianapolis at Denver--You have to love the fact that Peyton Manning has to beat his former team in order to reach the championship round, his first playoff game against the Colts.  Chuck Pagano is a great coach and of course Andrew Luck is a budding superstar, but let's face it--there is no way Manning loses this game.  Broncos 35, Colts 17



Friday, January 2, 2015

NFL picks--Wildcard weekend

Last week: 12-4
Season record: 161-79

Wow, it's hard to fathom that we're into the NFL playoffs already.  But we are, and there are some killer games to kick off January football on Saturday and Sunday.  So let's get to it!

Arizona at Carolina--It's kind of funny how we were all in an uproar about the fact that a sub-.500 team is in the playoffs again while the 10-6 Eagles are already on their collective couch (as a Giants fan, I love it.  As a football fan, I'm kind of annoyed).  But since the 7-8-1 Panthers have been playing well, culminating in that utter annihilation of the Falcons last weekend, and the 11-5 Cards have been regressing with everyone but me as their quarterback, Carolina is expected to win and advance by many.  I was leaning Carolina myself but something is tapping at my brain, and I think it's Bruce Arians.  Well, not literally.  But that AZ defense is so good, coupled with the fact that Carolina has this awesome ability to choke in the postseason, and my gut is telling me to take the visitors.  Cards 19, Panthers 16

Baltimore at Pittsburgh--You can take every record and statistic when these two teams play and throw it out the window.  It's always a bloodbath and almost always a great game.  Now they meet in the playoffs again.  Does Joe Flacco have more magic in him that took his team to a championship two seasons ago?  Or do the Steelers continue to roll?  Le'Veon Bell still may play, but even if he does he won't be as effective as usual.  And there is still Big Ben and Antonio Brown to contend with.  Steelers 31, Ravens 27

Cincinnati at Indianapolis--It's getting to be old hat for Marvin Lewis' Bengals to make the playoffs and then lose their first game.  This season will be no different as Andrew Luck finds a way to slice and dice the vaunted Bengals' D, and Andy Dalton keeps throwing balls to the other team when it matters most.  And if that happens again, there will be a mutiny in Cincy (so hint, there WILL be a mutiny).  Colts 29, Bengals 17

Detroit at Dallas--I'm not fond of the Eagles or Cowboys, so I'm always gonna root against them in the postseason.  But man, these Cowboys are on a mission, and they are different than any Dallas team has been in years.  Detroit has a great offense on paper, but has underachieved this year, while being carried by their stingy D.  I wish I could say Tony Romo, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and DeMarco Murray won't shred that defense, but they will and they will be traveling to Green Bay next weekend.  Cowboys 34, Lions 20

Friday, December 26, 2014

NFL picks--Week 17

Last week: 12-4
Season record: 149-75

Well, it's come to this.  Week 17 and just a few playoff spots and seedings up for grabs, which is both good and bad.  Good because there are still some spots being played for.  Bad because it's going to render most of these games a snooze fest.  They are all on Sunday this week, and it's always fun watching Andrew Siciliano talk over all those split screens, which now include three across in which you can't see any of the action on the field.  Let's have a look at the slate....

Cleveland at Baltimore--The Ravens are still alive but do not control their own destiny.  I think the Browns are a sack away from starting me or you at QB.  Ravens 23, Browns 10

Dallas at Washington--I believe the Cowboys have an outside shot at a 2-seed.  So don't expect them to let off the gas here.  Yes, the Skins have always had their number but this Dallas team is steamrolling everyone.  Cowboys 27, Redskins 17

Indianapolis at Tennessee--The Colts have been exposed as a bit of a fraud so they need to have positive momentum by beating up on the NFL's biggest doormat.  Colts 31, Titans 17

New Orleans at Tampa Bay--How the mighty Saints, considered by many as a Super Bowl team, have fallen.  It's kind of breathtaking.  And it continues on Sunday.  Bucs 22, Saints 20

Philadelphia at NY Giants--The Eagles were eliminated with a shocking loss to the Skins on Saturday, and the Giants just keep winning and ruining their draft position for 2015.  Say what you will about Tom Coughlin, he plays every game to win.  Giants 30, Eagles 20

Buffalo at New England--The Patriots are literally playing for nothing as they have the 1-seed locked up, but don't think for a minute that they won't go all out here.  Patriots 29, Bills 16

Jacksonville at Houston--It's been a pretty good rebound year for Houston under Bill O'Brien.  Texans 23, Jaguars 10

San Diego at Kansas City--I think this is one of the few games with playoff implications for both teams.  The Chargers win and they are in and the Chiefs can win and get in with help.  I think.  Chiefs 24, Chargers 23

NY Jets at Miami--This is likely a curtain call for Rex Ryan.  Joe Philbin is still safe but the Dolphins will once again miss the playoffs.  Jets 19, Dolphins 16

Chicago at Minnesota--The Bears are in a horrible downward spiral.  Vikings 22, Bears 17

Oakland at Denver--The first of five (yes five!) late afternoon games.  Broncos 37, Raiders 10

Arizona at San Francisco--Likely the last of Jim Harbaugh's games coaching the disappointing Niners.  The Cards still have a shot at the 1-seed and they won't let up off the gas.  Cards 17, Niners 14

Detroit at Green Bay--This is no layup for the Pack, but in Week 17 at Lambeau they are about as safe a bet as any to win.  And this is for the division crown.  Packers 23, Lions 20

St. Louis at Seattle--There is no way Jeff Fisher's dirty...errrr, chippy Rams win in Seattle with the number 1 seed in the Hawks sights.  Seahawks 23, Rams 6

Carolina at Atlanta--This one is for the NFC South crown, with the winner being under .500 as a division champ and hosting a playoff game a la the 2011 Seahawks.  And the team getting shafted by this playoff format?  The Eagles, who may finish 10-6 and watch a team with a losing record take the 4-seed.  I'm a Giants fan, and this pleases me immensely.  Panthers 27, Falcons 24

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh--Both of these teams are flawed but dangerous.  And both are playing well, but I have to take the home team and Mike Tomlin, one of my favorite NFL coaches, to win the AFC North.  Steelers 22, Bengals 19






Friday, December 19, 2014

NFL picks--Week 16

Last week: 10-6
Last night: 1-0
Season record: 138-71

The playoff picture is becoming clearer and it's both exciting and strange.  Exciting because your favorites of Seattle, Green Bay, New England and Denver are all looking really strong, and strange because it's likely the Saints, Panthers or Falcons will win the NFC South (and host a playoff game) with 6 or 7 or 8 wins.  The Niners are out.  The Bills are still alive.  Arizona will likely win the NFC West while the Niners are already eliminated.  But hey, it only means we have to watch.  Except for games like last night's Jax vs. Tennessee.  We have to draw the line somewhere.

Philadelphia at Washington--Last season Saturday football is back!  But these two games are kind of yawn-inducing.  There needs to be season long prime time flexing or something.  Eagles 34, Redskins 20

San Diego at San Francisco--With each passing day, Jim Harbaugh appears to be on his way out.  The Niners are out of the playoffs after reaching the NFC title game three straight times.  The Chargers are likely going to miss the playoffs too after losing two in a row.  They're still alive so they have more to play for.  Chargers 24, Niners 22

Minnesota at Miami--Hey, a rematch of Super Bowl 8!  I know none of these players were born yet, but I wonder if some of the coaches even weren't born yet.  Dolphins 20, Vikings 13

Baltimore at Houston--The other Harbaugh, John, always seems to have his Ravens in the hunt.  They are sneaky good even when they are not very good.  I'm waiting for my phone to ring any day now to play QB for the Texans if Case Keenum's second tour doesn't work out.  Ravens 27, Texans 16

Detroit at Chicago--The Bears are about as dysfunctional as a franchise can be right now.  There is a losing culture, yes, but benching your 15 million dollar QB is sending a message.  Of course, no one knows what that message is.  Lions 30, Bears 14

Cleveland at Carolina--The Browns are 7-7 and quite respectable, but with that record they now sit in last place in the AFC North with three 9-win teams above them.  Johnny who?  Panthers 21, Browns 14

Atlanta at New Orleans--It's amazing to think that the upset of the Saints by the Falcons in Week 1 would loom large in a playoff race among teams with losing records.  Saints 45, Falcons 31

Green Bay at Tampa Bay--A classic NFC Central division rivalry.  The whole world just went "HUH?"  Packers 24, Bucs 19

Kansas City at Pittsburgh--You would think Pittsburgh in December is a very unfriendly place to play, but Andy Reid always seems to have his team in position to win games anywhere, anytime.  But he won't win this one.  Steelers 28, Chiefs 20

New England at NY Jets--Can you imagine how badly Rex wants to win this game?  It's likely his last home game and his last game against the Pats as coach of the Jets.  Patriots 31, Jets 12

NY Giants at St. Louis--After games against the Jags, Titans and Redskins, the Giants are facing a Rams team that is going to have the appearance of the Seahawks.  And it'll be really tough for the Giants to score at all against them.  Rams 16, Giants 9

Buffalo at Oakland--This is surely a game the Bills should win but may not.  Raiders 23, Bills 20

Indianapolis at Dallas--Here is a mighty intriguing game.  The Cowboys are leading the NFC East at 10-4 and the Colts have that same record leading the AFC South.  I really want Dallas to choke here but I doubt they will.  Cowboys 37, Colts 35

Seattle at Arizona--So SNF flexed into a beauty here.  The Cards lead the NFC West at 11-3 while the Seahawks trail by one game at 10-4.  This is for the division, more or less.  Seahawks 20, Cards 17

Denver at Cincinnati--Hey, what do you know?  Even a blind squirrel finds and acorn sometimes.  Monday Night Football has a meaningful game in Week 16!   Bengals 26, Broncos 23


Thursday, December 18, 2014

NFL picks--Thursday Night Football Week 16

Last week: 10-6
Season record: 137-71

Tennessee at Jacksonville--Woo hoo!  A real barn burner for Thursday night.  They really have a knack for picking crappy games to air on TNF, don't they?  Jim Nantz and Phil Simms would never work a game like this on a Sunday-- instead, CBS would go to its thirteenth string of announcers like a monkey and a former NFL punter.  At least this is legitimately a game that could determine the number 1 pick in the 2015 NFL draft, so there's that.  And the Jags are 2-5 at home which gives them a slight edge (I mean, I can't believe I just wrote that).  So yeah, just wake me up when it's over.  Jaguars 19, Titans 16